| NATS 101 Lecture 26 Weather Forecasting 2 |
| Review: Key Concepts |
| Suite of Official NWS Forecasts |
| 3-Month
SST Forecast Most recent |
| Winter 2007-2008
Outlook latest prediction |
| Winter 2004-2005
Outlook (Issued 18 March 2004) |
| Winter 2004-2005
Outlook (Issued 18 March 2004) |
| NCEP GFS Forecasts |
| NCEP GFS Forecasts |
| Different Forecast Models |
| Forecast Evaluation: Accuracy and Skill |
| How Humans Improve Forecasts |
| Humans Improve Model Forecasts |
| Current Skill |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Chaos: Limits to Forecasting |
| Chaos: Limits to Forecasting |
| Chaos: Kleenex Example |
| Atmospheric Predictability |
| Limits of Predictability |
| Sensitivity to Initial Conditions |
| Summary: Key Concepts |
| Assignment for Next Lecture |