Example of Skill Estimate
Absolute Error (Tucson) = | 5750 m-5780 m | = | -30 m | = 30
m
Absolute Error (Climatology) = | 5690 m-5780 m | = | -90 m | = 90
m
The error for the model is less than the
error for the climatology forecast, so the forecast is said to be skillful relative to climatology.5 Day Forecast
Verification
Ahrens 2nd Ed.