Atmospheric Predictability
¥The atmosphere is like the ski slope with
moguls!
¥The uncertainty in the initial conditions grow during the evolution of a weather
forecast.
¥ So
a pinpoint forecast made for a long time in the future is worthless, no better than a
guess!
¥There is a limited amount of
predictability, but only for a short period of time.
¥ Loss
of predictability is an attribute of nature. It is not an artifact of computer models.