Forecast Evaluation:
Accuracy and Skill
Accuracy and Skill
¥Accuracy measures the closeness of a forecast value to a
verifying observation
Accuracy can be measured by many metrics¥Skill compares the accuracy of a forecast against
the accuracy of a competing forecast
A forecast must beat simple
competitors:Persistence, Climatology, Random,
etc.
If
forecasts consistently beat these competitors, then the
forecasts are said to be ÒskillfulÓ