Example of Skill
Estimate
Absolute Error (Tucson) = 
| 5750 m-5780 m | = | -30 m | = 30
m
| 5750 m-5780 m | = | -30 m | = 30
mAbsolute Error (Climatology) =| 5690 m-5780 m | = | -90 m | = 90
m
The error for the model is less than the
error for the climatology forecast, so the
forecast is said to be skillful relative to climatology.| 5690 m-5780 m | = | -90 m | = 90
m5 Day Forecast
Verification
Ahrens 2nd Ed.