Chaos: Limits to
Forecasting
¥We now know that even if our models were perfect, it would still be impossible to
predict precisely
winter storms beyond 10-14 days
¥There are countless, undetected small errors in our initial analyses of the atmosphere
¥These small disturbances grow with time as the computer projects farther into the future
Lorenz
posed, ÒDoes the flap of a butterflyÕs wings in
Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?Ó
¥There are countless, undetected small errors in our initial analyses of the atmosphere
¥These small disturbances grow with time as the computer projects farther into the future
Lorenz
posed, ÒDoes the flap of a butterflyÕs wings in
Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?Ó