Global Warming Discussion

What to do?

The global warming issue has been labeled the "Science of Uncertainty": (1)Although we are able to measure a significant rise in global average temperatures in recent years, we are unable to determine how much of the warming is due to the increases in greenhouse gases and how much is part of some natural cycle; (2)We are unable to predict exactly how climate will change in the future with higher levels of greenhouse gases and exactly what the impacts of climate changes will be on humans and other life on the planet. This makes it difficult for all people to come together and agree on what, if anything, should be done. Scientists are working on reducing the uncertainties, but due to the complex nature of the climate system, we should not expect certain answers to all questions. We have to make decisions which weigh uncertain risks against the costs of taking action. See Global Warming Facts and Uncertainties

If nothing else, the human race is in the process of performing a huge experiment on global climate by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is probably greater now than at any time over the last one million years. The outcome of this experiment is uncertain. Are we ready and willing to take the risks? So far the answer is yes, because in spite of all the talk about global warming, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. This is especially relevant for the people of the United States who by far emit more greenhouse gases per person than any other nation on Earth. By the way, if you are one of those people who believe that even though adding greenhouse gases is probably not a good thing, we should wait to deal with the problem until we are more sure that greenhouse gases are causing us problems, you need to keep in mind that there will likely be no "quick fix". Once released into the atmosphere, greenhouse gases remain for quite some time, and there is a significant delay before the complete climate change, at the higher greenhouse gas concentrations, is fully realized. In accordance with those who believe that we should not take the potential risks associated with climate change here is an interesting comparison between climate change and tobacco use.

Still others do not perceive much risk at all. While most anthropogenic global warming "skeptics" do not deny that the world is getting warmer, they do doubt that human activity is the cause. Some say the changes now being witnessed are not extraordinary - similar, rapid changes can be seen at other times in Earth's history when humans either did not exist or were incapable of effecting climate change. Some point to the natural variations in the Sun's energy output as the prime influence on recent temperature trends. These researchers claim that many of the historical climate changes that have occurred on Earth, including recent climate changes that have been documented by human civilizations, are caused by variations in the energy output of the Sun. Other groups point to known geophysical oscillations, such as the PDO, to explain recent and past temperature changes. To these people, recent temperature changes are not much influenced by human activity. This is just part of a natural variation in climate, and humans and most other forms of life have survived past changes just fine. Nevertheless, there are many climate scientists who believe that, even on top of the natural variability of the climate, something out of the ordinary is happening and humans are to blame.

Yet another group of people do not deny that temperatures are warming and also believe that it may be caused by human activity (although we cannot be sure at this point mainly because climate models are not good enough to answer this question), but they are unconcerned about the possible consequences. In essense they do not believe the doom and gloom future senarios projected by the IPCC 2007 report. This group wonders why we should go through economic and personal hardships required to signficantly reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, since in comparison, those hardships will be much worse than the consequences of any climate changes that we may or may not cause. For example see the recent Newsweek article written by Havard atmospheric scientiest Richard Lindzen Learning to Live with Global Warming: Why So Gloomy?

There are many diverse opinions on how to deal with the global warming issue. Each of us needs to make up our own mind. Are you willing to make sacrifices now to reduce the potential (and uncertain) consequences of global warming? Personal sacrifices would be consciously limiting your activities which release greenhouse gases (like driving or energy usage). Societal sacrifices would be government regulations that force individuals and companies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Topic Outline for Further Discussion

1. Since we are unable to accurately predict future climate changes due to adding greenhouse gases, surprises are possible.
• Large, regional climate shifts may occur if for instance the Gulf stream ocean circulation shuts down
• Are there strong positive feedbacks that have not fully kicked in yet? For example, large amounts of methane are stored in permafrost regions of the northern hemisphere. If permafrost soils melt, the methane could be released into the atmosphere.
• Is there some threshold in either temperature or greenhouse gas concentrations that once we pass, the climate system will shift abruptly to another state?
2. Although Al Gore and the IPCC 2007 report claim there is a consensus among climate scientists on global warming due to greenhouse gas increases, this is not true at all.
3. Try to think about the issue objectively and not emotionally. Just becuase we are perturbing our environment does not guarantee disaster.
• Our actions often have (unintended) negative effects on the environment, but that is not proof that greenhouse gases are causing most of the recent climate changes, nor is it proof that that future disaster is certain.
• Many people have a genuine desire to "save the planet" and are emotionally convinced that many human actions are bad. These people are looking for an environmental cause to fight for, regardless of the scientific basis.
• Polar bears
• For many, the issue of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases has become almost a "religious fanaticism", based on belief rather than science. In fact unconcerned citizens are often labeled as "global warming skeptics" or "deniers".
4. There are people and organizations who will tell you that their main concern is the the environment and negative effects of global warming, but in reality they have hidden agendas.
• Some who have contempt for large corporations and corporate greed believe that many large corporations make their money by exploiting the environment and should be punished.
• Some politicians and government agencies want to enhance their revenue and power through taxes and regulations on greenhouse gas emissions by companies.
• Even companies and large corporations will promote emission controls if they feel that they can profit by exploiting any new regulations.
• Probably the worst offenders in this grouping are scientists who manipulate data and presentations to make possible anthropogenic global warming look as certain and devastating as possible in order to secure government grants. Because even some scientists are biased, I suggest that you at least consider several diverse positions from different scientists.
5. You should realize that humans may be significantly altering the global climate in a variety of ways besides the radiative effects of adding greenhouse gases. When we put all of our focus on carbon dioxide emissions in terms of its perturbation to the greenhouse effect, we are neglecting other, and potentially more important, aspects of the impact of human activities on climate. If we are serious about mitigating anthropogenic climate changes, then we need to consider the effects of everything that we do, not just the radiative effects of added greenhouse gases (see A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system).
• Examples of other human activities that may influence climate changes include landscape changes, aerosol production, and the widespread use of fertilizers.
6. In focussing to much attention on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we often ignore adaptation strategies that could save millions and reduce our exposure to loss in the future (see Lifting the Taboo on Adaptation).
• For example, quoting from the article above: "Much of the post-Katrina debate focussed on whether or not the event bore the signiture of global warming, despite the fact that scientists have known for decades the inevitability of a katrina-type disaster in New Orleans."
• Other similar examples are presented under the section "At the Margins" in the article above.
• There is much concern today about the loss of species and reductions in biodiversity. Some point to global warming as a major contributing factor. However, to me the loss of biodiversity is more related to loss of habitat due to human expansion, rather than a result of our adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
7. If you are someone who believes that immediate action should be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, consider what it would take to significantly reduce the possible effects of global warming.
• Even bringing emissions back down to what they were in 1990, as suggested at the Kyoto meeting, would be very difficult to do both economically and personally. As hard as this goal would be to reach (at least in the short term until we are able to find viable energy alternatives fossil fuels), greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to increase. And if global warming is occurring due to higher levels of greenhouse gases, this action would not slow it down very much.
• A previous IPCC report claimed that the world may have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% (from 1990 levels) in order to avoid disastrous effects of global warming ... is this even possible?
• Are the people in the developed world (you and me) ready to give up the freedom of driving cars or not using new technology (like cell phones and computers) becuase they use a lot of energy and end up adding greenhouse gases to the air?
• Is it fair for the developed world to tell the developing world, no you cannot use fossil fuel in the way the we do because of potential global warming?
• Realistically, doing small things, like turning off an unnecessary light or recycling your plastic water bottles, which do reduce waste and are in themselves good choices, will only have a minimal effect on possible global warming.
8. Perhaps becuase anthropogenic global warming and its possible effects remain uncertain, we should focus on making changes that make sense even if there were no global warming fears, like investing heavily in the development of sustainable alternative energy sources. We need to sensibly plan for the future energy demands of the world as fossil fuels will run out someday. We should try to avoid making hasty and poorly thought out decisions on energy policy that only marginally influence possible anthropogenic global warming, but have far reaching negative impacts on people, such as the widespread production and use of corn-based ethanol.