Subject: RE: last evening
From: "Douglas, Arthur" <sonora@creighton.edu>
To: Rob Kursinski <kursinsk@atmo.arizona.edu>,
Bob Maddox
<bob@squidinkbooks.com>, <leuthold@atmo.arizona.edu>,
<twobid@cox.net>,
<mullen@atmo.arizona.edu>,
"Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov" <Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>,
"ppajkck@ku.edu" <ppajkck@ku.edu>
Cc: <kursinski@atmo.arizona.edu>
Thread-Topic: last evening
Thread-Index: AckfUJyKY2mrXzaNS0a4lWLhWGV5bQ==
Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:52:24 -0500
Well I was just
throwing that out as a possibility per the last 9 years given SLP in Easter has
gone way up in the new PDO mode.
The Hadley circulation most certainly is like with India (though much
weaker) with south Indian Ocean SSTs needing to be colder for a stronger
high, cross equatorial flow and increased evaporation as the winds approach
India. But...........just one
small piece I am sure.
From: Rob Kursinski
Sent: Thu 9/25/2008 2:12 PM
To: Douglas, Arthur; Rob Kursinski; Bob
Maddox; leuthold@atmo.arizona.edu; twobid@cox.net; mullen@atmo.arizona.edu;
Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov; ppajkck@ku.edu
Cc: kursinski@atmo.arizona.edu
Subject: RE: last evening
Thanks.
I looked through. I
see you predicted wetter than average for all of the warm months but that was
not enough to predict the magnitude of accumulated precip.
It looks like the only month that set a precip record this year
was August. June and July are well
below the records
Hard to believe Antarctica affects our monsoon with flow across
the equator but I guess it does.
So a colder Antarctica makes a wetter Mexico.
Thanks,
Rob
At 1:55 PM -0500 9/25/08, Douglas, Arthur wrote:
Rob,
The graph is a
nationwide grid point mean. One
single spot in a given day does not have that much of an impact, but broad
events (hurricanes) do have a big impact.
If you look under "Productos" at the SMN website (middle
top) and then look under "Precipitacion Mensual y Acumulado"
(top of new page) there is a bar graph of the forecast and observed plus
climo. They also have their past
monthly data 1941-present on the site under "Productos" and top
of that page "Precipitacion Historicas" and click on
"Estatisticas." Every month has been wet since
May. Our forecast was good each
month......and consistently in the upper 20% of the wettest years (the class
limits for the whole country are very narrow)........but there was no way
to forecast these extreme monthly values per our cluster analysis analog
forecast technique. Mexican
monthly precipitation has a weak negative correlation..........so persistence
definitely does not work!
They have not had
a particularly dry year since the big El Nino event of 97-98. Also, the south Pacific high has really
increased in intensity over this same period with strong cross equatorial flow
towards Mexico. Antarctica sea ice
has actually increased and SSTs north of the ice have been well below normal
for some time and this is intensifying the thermal gradient south to
north. All good for the monsoon.
Art
From: Rob Kursinski
Sent: Thu 9/25/2008 1:13 PM
To: Douglas, Arthur; Bob Maddox;
leuthold@atmo.arizona.edu; twobid@cox.net; mullen@atmo.arizona.edu;
Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov; ppajkck@ku.edu
Cc: kursinski@atmo.arizona.edu
Subject: RE: last evening
Very interesting.
In the bar graph, the accumulated June-August rainfall for this
year is at least 10% higher than the next highest year in 1981. Looks like a serious outlier perhaps
indicating nonstationary behavior.
Also the wettest in 68 years is because the record is apparently only 68
years long. This looks like it may
be the wettest in quite a bit longer period.
Can they get 10% of the June-August precip. in a single
event? If so then the precip could
be well above the other years due
to a single event. The smoothness
of the range of precip in the bar graph seems to argue against that.
Interstingly, over the past 6 years or so every year has been
producing more precip. than the previous year. I wonder how unusual that
sequence is as well. Art, how did
your predictions work over this period?
Anything unusual indicating a change relative to past relationships?
I've been wondering if our monsoon will intensify as a result of
global warming due enhanced land-sea temperature contrast driving stronger
monsoonal winds and higher temperatures increasing moisture in the air
producing enhanced moisture convergence in the monsoon area. Perhaps...
Thanks for copying me on this
Rob
At 12:10 PM -0500 9/25/08, Douglas, Arthur wrote:
You guys should
take a look at the Mexican homepage where there are two articles by Javier
Espinosa on the extraordinary monsoon they are having. Now the wettest on record in 68
years.........winning big time!
Daily heavy rainfall events (70mm daily station totals) are
well above normal especially in the arid north and by 48% for the entire
country. This despite a Canicula
in the south where rainfall totals have been below normal (but in the past few
days this too is reversing).
Page is <http://smn.cna.gob.mx/>http://smn.cna.gob.mx/
Look on the left where the yellow nuevo is flashing for the two
reports.
In our monthly and seasonal outlooks we forecast a wet monsoon
with the south slightly drier than normal.......but the amounts we forecast are
not close to those observed.
Forecast, observed and normal can be found under "Productos"
center top of home page and then clicking under "Ultimas 24hrs" the
"Precipitation mensual y acumulada".
Here is the IRI forecasts from May that had above normal
rainfall in the far south and normal for the rest of the country:
Art