Tuesday Dec. 1, 2009
the easy to print version might appear over the weekend.

Answers to the most recent Optional Assignment


Sorry about the delay in getting today's notes online.  Hopefully the material is in roughly the same order as we covered it in class.

We will spend today's class on Hurricanes.  This will be the final topic that we cover this semester.  There won't be any questions about hurricanes on this weeks quiz but there will be some questions on the final exam.

A good place to begin is to compare hurricanes (tropical cyclones) with middle latitude storms (extratropical cyclones).  To
speed things up, I'm borrowing some of the figures below from a previous semester.  The figures may differ slightly from those drawn in class.


Hurricanes and middle latitude storms have a couple of characteristics in common: a.  they both form around surface centers of low pressure (that is why the term cyclone appears in the names of both types of storms).   Upper level divergence can lower the surface pressure which then can cause both types of storms to intensify.

1,2. Middle latitude storms (MLS) form at middle latitude (between 30 and 60 degrees latitude) and are generally bigger than hurricanes.  A large middle latitude storm might cover half of the United States.  Hurricanes form in the tropics, a big hurricane might fill the Gulf of Mexico.


3. MLS form in the prevailing westerly wind belt and move from west to east.  Hurricanes form in the trade winds and move from east to west. 

4,5. MLS can form over land or water.  Fronts separate warm, cold, and cool air masses.  Hurricanes only form over very warm ocean water and are made entirely of warm moist air.


6.   The strongest middle latitude storms form in the winter and early spring.  Peak hurricane activity occurs in the late summer into the fall.

7.    MLS can produce a variety of different types of precipitation.  Hurricanes mostly just produce very large amounts of rain.  Hurricanes do contain thunderstorms so hail and graupel as also possible. 

8.   Hurricanes receive names (when they reach tropical storm strength).  The names now alternate male and female.  The names of particularly strong or deadly hurricanes (such as Katrina) are retired, otherwise the names repeat every 6 years.






The figure above shows the relative frequency of tropical cyclone development in different parts of the world.  The name hurricane, cyclone, and typhoon all refer to the same type of storm (tropical cyclone is a general name that can be used anywhere).  In most years the ocean off the coast of SE Asia is the world's most active hurricane zone.  Hurricanes are very rare off the east and west coasts of South America.

Hurricanes form between 5 and 20 degrees latitude, over warm ocean water, north and south of the equator.  The warm layer of water must be fairly deep to contain enough energy to fuel a hurricane and so that turbulence and mixing don't bring cold water up to the ocean surface.  The atmosphere must be unstable so that thunderstorms can develop.  Hurricanes will only form when there is very little or no vertical wind shear (changing wind direction or speed with altitude).  Hurricanes don't form at the equator because there is no Coriolis force there (the Coriolis force is what gives hurricanes their spin and it causes hurricanes to spin in opposite directions in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Note that more tropical cyclones form off the west coast of the US than off the east coast.  The west coast hurricanes don't generally get much attention, because they move away from the coast and usually don't present a threat to the US (except occasionally to the state of Hawaii).  The moisture from these storms will sometimes be pulled up into the southwestern US where it can lead to heavy rain and flooding.



Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially runs from June 1 through to November 30.  The peak of hurricane season is in September.  In 2005, an unusually active hurricane season in the Atlantic, hurricanes continued through December and even into January 2006.  Hurricane season in the Pacific begins two weeks earlier on May 15 and runs through Nov. 30.


Some kind of meteorological process that produces low level convergence is needed to initiate a hurricane.  One possibility, and the one that fuels most of the strong N. Atlantic hurricanes, is an "easterly wave."  This is just a "wiggle" in the wind flow pattern.  Easterly waves often form over Africa or just off the African coast and then travel toward the west across the N. Atlantic.  Winds converge as they approach the wave and then diverge once they are past it .  The convergence will cause air to rise and thunderstorms to begin to develop. 


In an average year, in the N. Atlantic, there will be 10 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes) that develop during hurricane season.  2005 was, if you remember,  a very unusual year.  There were 28 named storms in the N. Atlantic in 2005.  That beat the previous record of 21 names storms that had been set in 1933.  Of the 28 named storms, 15 developed into hurricanes.

In some ways winds blowing through an easterly wave resembles traffic on a multi-lane highway.  Traffic will back up as it approaches a section of the highway with a closed lane.  Once through the "bottleneck" traffic will begin to flow more freely.




Another process that causes surface winds to converge is a "lee side low."




This figure tries to explain how a cluster of thunderstorms can organize and intensify into a hurricane.


1.  Converging surface winds pick up heat and moisture from the ocean.  These are the two mains sources of energy for the hurricane.

2.   Rising air cools and thunderstorm clouds form.  The release of latent heat during condensation warms the atmosphere.  The core of a hurricane is warm.

3.   Pressure decreases more slowly with increasing altitude in the warm core of the hurricane.  The result is that pressure at the top center of the hurricane is higher than the pressure at the top edges of the hurricane (pressure at the top center is still lower than the pressure at the bottom center of the hurricane).  Upper levels winds diverge and spiral outward from the top center of the hurricane.

4.   The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure at the center of the hurricane to decrease.  The speed of the converging surface winds increases and the storm intensifies.  The converging winds pick up additional heat and moisture which warms the core of the hurricane even more.  The upper level high pressure and the upper level divergence increase.  The increased divergence lowers the surface pressure even more.

Here's another illustration of hurricane intensification




In the figure at left the upper level divergence is stronger than the surface convergence.  The surface low pressure will decrease.  The decrease in surface pressure will cause the converging surface winds to blow faster.

In the middle picture, the surface low pressure is lower, the surface convergence is stronger.  The upper level divergence has also been strengthened a little bit.  The upper level divergence is still stronger than the surface convergence so the surface low pressure will decrease even more.

In the right figure the surface low pressure has decreased enough that the surface convergence now balances the upper level divergence.  The storm won't strengthen any more.

Generally speaking the lower the surface pressure at the center of a hurricane the stronger the storm and the faster the surface winds will blow.



This figure tries to show the relationship between surface pressure and surface wind speed. 
The world record low sea level pressure reading, 870 mb, was set by Typooon Tip off the SE Asia coast in 1979.  Sustained winds in that storm were 190 MPH.  Three 2005 Atlantic hurricanes: Wilma, Rita, and Katrina had pressures in the 880 mb to 900 mb range and winds ranging from 170 to 190 MPH.



At some point during today's class we watched a 20 minute segment from a NOVA program (PBS network) on hurricanes was shown.  A film crew was on board a NOAA reconnaissance plane as it flew into the narrow eye of hurricane GILBERT.  Gilbert set the record low sea level pressure reading for the Atlantic ocean (888 mb).  That record stood until the 2005 hurricane season when WILMA set a new record of 882 mb.  The world record low sea level pressure, 870 mb, was set in a SE Asian typhoon in 1979.

Here are some of the comments written down during the video (these were on the back of the handout distributed in class.  We will review the Saffir Simpson scale in class on Friday and look at the 3-dimensional structure of hurricanes in more detail.



One of the most distinctive features of a hurricane is the clear eye in the center.  The eye is produced by sinking air.  Once in the eye, the people in the NOAA plane where able to see blue sky when they looked and and saw the ocean surface when they looked down.  The eye of a hurricane is something that very few people will ever see.  The eye is surrounded by the eye wall, a ring of strong thunderstorms. 




The Saffir simpson scale is used to rate hurricane intensity or damage potentialWe'll talk more about hurricane damage in class on Friday.



The stages of storm development that lead up to a hurricane are shown at the bottom of p. 143a in the photocopied ClassNotes.



A tropical disturbance is just a localized cluster of thunderstorms that a meterologist might see on a satellite photograph.  But this would merit observation because of the potential for further development.  Signs of rotation would be evidence of organization and the developing storm would be called a tropical depression.

In order to be called a tropical storm the storm must organize a little more, and winds must increase to 35 knots.  The storm receives a name at this point.  Finally when winds exceed 75 MPH (easier to remember than 65 knots or 74 MPH) the storm becomes a hurricane.



A crossectional view of a mature hurricane (top) and a picture like you might see on a satellite photograph (below). 

Sinking air in the very center of a hurricane produces the clear skies of the eye, a hurricane's most distinctive feature.  The eye is typically a few 10s of miles across, though it may only be a few miles across in the strongest hurricanes.  Generally speaking the smaller the eye, the stronger the storm.

A ring of strong thunderstorms, the eye wall, surrounds the eye.  This is where the hurricane's strongest winds are found. 

Additional concentric rings of thunderstorms are found as you move outward from the center of the hurricane.  These are called rain bands.  These usually aren't visible until you get to the outer edge of the hurricane because they are covered by high altitude layer clouds.

Hurricanes are, of course, very destructive.


The Saffir-Simpson scale is used to rate hurricane intensity (just as the Fujita scale is used with tornadoes).
A simplified version of the Saffir-Simpson scale is shown above.  Pressure decreases by 20 mb, wind speeds increase by 20 MPH, and the height of the storm surge increases 5 feet for every increase in Saffir Simpson Scale rating.  You don't need to remember all the numbers.  Just remember that there are 5 categories on the scale, category 1 is the weakest.  Hurricane winds must be over 75 MPH for the storm to be called a hurricane.

The following figure shows how a storm surge develops as a hurricane comes onshore.




Out at sea, the converging surface winds create surface currents in the ocean that transport water toward the center of the hurricane.  The rise in ocean level is probably only a few feet, though the waves are much larger.  A return flow develops underwater that carries the water back to where it came from.

As the hurricane approaches shore, the ocean becomes shallower.  The return flow must pass through a more restricted space.  A rise in ocean level will increase the underwater pressure and the return flow will speed up.  More pressure and an even faster return flow is needed as the hurricane gets near the coast.

Here is a link to the storm surge website (from the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Labororatory).  It has an interesting animation showing output from the SLOSH model used to predict hurricane storm surges and the flooding they can cause.

We watched another short video at the end of class.  It mostly described the arrival of Hurricane Camille along the Mississippi coast in 1969.  Camille is the 2nd most intense hurricane to hit the US (see p. 146a in the photocopied
ClassNotes)



The storm surge probably causes the most hurricane damage along a coastline.  Further out at sea strong winds and high seas are the biggest hazard.  Once a hurricane moves onshore it weakens very rapidly (friction slows the winds and the hurricane is cut off from its supply of moisture).  However very heavy rains, thunderstorms and tornadoes can remain a threat over a large area for days to come.





The following information is just for informational purposes, you don't need to remember all these details.

The 2005 hurricane season (the year Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans) was unusual in many respects.  

3 of the 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever ( Wilma, Rita, and Katrina) occurred in 2005 (you'll find the top 10 listed on p. 146a in the photocopied classnotes).  Wilma became the most intense hurricane of all time in the Atlantic, beating out Hurricane Gilbert (1988) which was featured in the video tape segment shown in class last Friday.

On average there are about 10 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes) in the Atlantic per year.  Before 2005 the record was 21 storms.  There were 28 storms in 2005 which blew the old record out of the water.

Katrina was the third most intense hurricane to hit the mainland US and easily became the most costly natural disaster in US history. 

Fortunately none of the 2005 storms came close to becoming the deadliest hurricane in US history. That distinction belongs to the 1900 Galveston hurricane