| NATS 101 Lecture 18 Weather Forecasting |
| Review: ET Cyclones Ingredients for Intensification |
| Reasons to Forecast Weather & Climate |
| Forecasting Questions |
| Types of Forecasts |
| Types of Forecasts |
| Types of Forecasts |
| Types of Forecasts |
| Types of Forecasts |
| Analysis Phase |
| Analysis Phase |
| Analysis Phase |
| Surface Data |
| Surface Buoy Reports |
| Radiosonde Coverage |
| Aircraft Reports |
| Weather Satellites |
| Obs from Geostationary Satellites |
| Temperature from Polar Satellites |
| Operational ECMWF system September to December 2008. Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in forecast error. |
| Atmospheric Models |
| Prediction Phase |
| Model Grid Boxes |
| ÒA Lot Happens Inside a
Grid BoxÓ (Tom Hamill, CDC/NOAA) |
| 13 km Model Terrain |
| Post-Processing Phase |
| Suite of Official NWS Forecasts |
| Summary: Key Concepts |
| Summary: Key Concepts |
| NATS 101 Weather Forecasting 2 |
| 3-Month SST Forecast (Issued 6 April 2004) |
| Winter 2004-2005
Outlook (Issued 20 October 2005) |
| Winter 2004-2005
Outlook (Issued 18 March 2004) |
| Winter 2004-2005
Outlook (Issued 18 March 2004) |
| NCEP GFS Forecasts |
| NCEP GFS Forecasts |
| Different Forecast Models |
| Forecast Evaluation: Accuracy and Skill |
| How Humans Improve Forecasts |
| Humans Improve Model Forecasts |
| Current Skill |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Why NWP Forecasts Go Awry |
| Chaos: Limits to Forecasting |
| Chaos: Limits to Forecasting |
| Chaos: Kleenex Example |
| Atmospheric Predictability |
| Limits of Predictability |
| Sensitivity to Initial Conditions |
| Summary: Key Concepts |
| Assignment for Next Lecture |