Chaos: Limits to
Forecasting
¥We now know that even if our models were perfect, it would
still be impossible to predict precisely winter storms
beyond 10-14 days
¥There are countless, undetected small errors in our initial analyses of the atmosphere
¥These small disturbances grow with time as the computer projects farther into the future
Lorenz
posed, ÒDoes the flap of a butterflyÕs wings in Brazil set off
a tornado in Texas?Ó
¥There are countless, undetected small errors in our initial analyses of the atmosphere
¥These small disturbances grow with time as the computer projects farther into the future
Lorenz
posed, ÒDoes the flap of a butterflyÕs wings in Brazil set off
a tornado in Texas?Ó