Tuesday Dec. 2, 2014

A couple of songs that I hadn't heard in a while before class this morning: Don McLean "Vincent", and "American Pie".

The 1S1P reports on Satellite Photographs of Clouds, the Lake Effect, and Foucault's Pendulum that were turned in last week have been graded.  Reports on the last two topics were collected in class today.  There won't be any additional 1S1P report topics this semester (the last day of classes is one week from today).  If you are still in need of 1S1P points you should contact me.

There are still quite a few Experiment/Scientific Paper/Book reports waiting to be picked up.  Unless you heard differently from me, today was the last day to turn in a revised report.  If you do turn in a revised report after today I won't throw it away.  If it looks like it could have an effect on your overall grade, I'll try to have a look at it before I turn in the final grades.

Quiz #4 is Thursday this week.  Next Tuesday is the last day of classes.  You'll receive an up-to-date grade summary in class next Tuesday.  You'll find out then whether you need to take the Final Exam or not. 

Hurricanes will be the final topic that we cover this semester.  You'll find answers to all these Hurricane Sample Questions in the notes below.   A copy of the handout was distributed in class.

On average, hurricanes kill 20 people per year in the United States and cause about $5 billion of damage.  As the table below indicates though there are exceptional years (such as 2005) where the death and damage totals greatly exceed these average values
Year
 Deaths
 Total Damage
($billions)
2001
 24
 5.1
2002
 51
 1.4
2003
 14
 1.9
2004
 34
 19.6
2005
 1016
 95.1
2006
 0
 < 1
2007
 1
 < 1
2008
 12
 8.0
2009
 2
 < 1
2010
 0
 < 1
2011
 9
 < 1
2012
 4
 < 1
2013
 1
 < 1
The hurricane deaths statistics are from this source.  Hurricane death and economic cost statistics can be found here.
"Superstorm" Sandy is not included here because it was no longer a tropical cyclone when it made landfall (ref)
2005 was the year hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans.  Three of the ten strongest hurricanes ever observed in the N. Atlantic occurred in 2005 (Wilma was the strongest and the new record holder, Rita was 4th and Katrina 6th strongest).  The deadliest hurricane in US history is the 1900 Galveston hurricane which caused 6000 - 12,000 deaths.  The Great Hurricane of 1780 killed over 20,000 people in the Lesser Antilles.  Historic rainfall amounts (75 inches perhaps in some locations) and flooding associated with Hurricane Mitch killed over 19,000 people in Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua in 1998.

You might be wondering why "Superstorm Sandy" (aka Hurricane Sandy) isn't included in the list.  The answer is that it was no longer a tropical storm when it made landfall (the statistics above are just for hurricanes).  It is one of the top 2 or 3 costliest natural disasters in US history (together with Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew which hit southern Florida in 1992).  Sandy is included in this illustrated compilation of the 11 costliest hurricanes in US history.

Hurricanes - middle latitude storm comparison

A good place to begin this topic is to compare hurricanes (tropical cyclones) with middle latitude storms (extratropical cyclones).  These are the two largest types of storm systems found on the earth.

Satellite photographs and sketches of the two types of storm system are shown below.








Next we'll list some of the similarities (first table below) and differences (second table; the left column applies to middle latitude storms, the right most column to hurricanes) between these storms.


Similarities
1. both types of storms have low pressure centers (the term cyclone refers to winds blowing around low pressure)
2. upper level divergence is what causes both types of storms to intensify (intensification means the surface low pressure gets even lower)


Differences (the order may differ from that given in class)
1. Middle latitude storms are bigger,
1000 or 2000 km in diameter (half the US)
 1. Hurricanes are smaller,
a few 100s of km in diameter (fill the Gulf of Mexico)
2. Formation can occur over land or water
 2. Can only form over warm ocean water &
weaken rapidly when they move over land or cold water
3. Form at middle (30o to 60o) latitudes
3. Form in the sub tropics, 5o to 20o latitude
4. Winds at middle latitudes (the prevailing westerlies) move these storms from west to east
 4. Easterly winds in the tropics (the trade winds) move hurricanes
from east to west
5. Storm season: late fall and winter (strong thunderstorms and     tornadoes in early spring)
 5. Storm season: late summer to fall (when ocean water is warmest)
6. Warm and cold air masses collide along fronts
 6. just warm moist air 
7. All types of precipitation: rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain
 7. Mostly just lots of rain (often a foot or more)
8. Only an occasional storm gets a name
("The Perfect Storm", "Storm of the Century", "Superstorm Sandy" etc.)
 8. Tropical storms & hurricanes all get names (determined by an international committee of some kind)


Hurricane occurrence




The figure above shows the relative frequency of tropical cyclone development in different parts of the world.  The name hurricane, cyclone, and typhoon all refer to the same type of storm (tropical cyclone is a generic name that can be used anywhere).  In most years the warm ocean off the coast of SE Asia is the world's most active hurricane zone.  Hurricanes are very rare off the east and west coasts of South America.

Hurricanes form between 5 and 20 degrees latitude, over warm ocean water, north and south of the equator.  The warm layer of water must be fairly deep (200 feet deep) to contain enough energy to fuel a hurricane and so that turbulence and mixing don't bring cold water up to the ocean surface.  The atmosphere must be unstable so that thunderstorms can develop.  Hurricanes will only form when there is very little or no vertical wind shear (changing wind direction or speed with altitude).  Hurricanes don't form at the equator because there is no Coriolis force there (the Coriolis force is what gives hurricanes their spin and it causes hurricanes to spin in opposite directions in the northern and southern hemispheres).

Note that more tropical cyclones form off the west coast of the US than off the east coast.  The west coast hurricanes don't generally get much attention, because they move away from the coast and usually don't present a threat to the US (except occasionally to the state of Hawaii).  The moisture from these storms will sometimes be pulled up into the southwestern US where it can lead to heavy rain and flooding.  You may remember the threat of several inches of rain in Tucson earlier in the semester from remnants of a tropical storm.

Hurricane season


Hurricane season in the Atlantic officially runs from June 1 through to November 30.  The peak of hurricane season is in September.  In 2005, an unusually active hurricane season in the Atlantic, hurricanes continued through December and even into January 2006.  Hurricane season in the Pacific begins two weeks earlier on May 15 and runs through Nov. 30.

Hurricane formation
Some kind of meteorological process that produces low level convergence is needed to initiate a hurricane.  One possibility, and the one that fuels most of the strong N. Atlantic hurricanes, is an "easterly wave."  This is just a "wiggle" in the wind flow pattern.  Here's a little bit better sketch than the one on p. 142 in the photocopied ClassNotes.





In some ways winds blowing through an easterly wave resembles traffic on a multi-lane highway (see below).  Traffic will slow down and start to bunch up as it approaches an obstruction.  This is like the convergence that occurs when air flows into an easterly wave.  Once past the "bottleneck" traffic will begin to flow more freely.  Easterly waves often form over Africa or just off the African coast and then travel toward the west across the N. Atlantic.  Winds converge as they approach the wave and then diverge once they are past it .  The convergence will cause air to rise and thunderstorms to begin to develop. 







Normal Pacific hurricane activity
Normal Atlantic hurricane activity 
16 tropical storms per year
8 reach hurricane strength
0 hit the US coastline		 10 tropical storms per year
6 reach hurricane strength
2 hit the US coastline
this year
20 tropical storms (4th most active)
14 hurricanes (9 major)
Hurricane Iselle struck the big island of Hawaii
this year
8 tropical storms
6 hurricanes (2 major)
1 made landfall in the US


In an average year, in the N. Atlantic, there will be 10 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes) that develop during hurricane season.  This year the Atlantic was fairly quite.  The Pacific was very active, the 4th most active on record.  Iselle was actually a tropical storm I think when it hit Hawaii.

2005 was, if you remember,  a very unusual year.  There were 28 named storms in the N. Atlantic in 2005.  That beat the previous record of 21 names storms that had been set in 1933.  Of the 28 named storms, 15 developed into hurricanes.

Hurricane development and intensification
This is a reasonably important figure.  It tries to explain how a cluster of thunderstorms can organize and intensify into a hurricane.


1.  Converging surface winds pick up heat and moisture from the ocean.  These are the two mains sources of energy for the hurricane.

2.   Rising air expands, cools, and thunderstorm clouds form.  The release of latent heat during condensation warms the atmosphere.  The air in the core of a hurricane is warmer than the air around it.

3.   Pressure decreases more slowly with increasing altitude in the warm core of the hurricane.  The result is that pressure at the top center of the hurricane is higher than the pressure at the top edges of the hurricane (pressure at the top center is still lower than the pressure at the bottom center of the hurricane).  Upper levels winds diverge and spiral outward from the top center of the hurricane (you can sometimes see this on satellite photographs of hurricanes).

4.   The upper level divergence will cause the surface pressure at the center of the hurricane to decrease.  The speed of the converging surface winds increases and the storm intensifies.  The converging winds pick up additional heat and moisture which warms the core of the hurricane even more.  The upper level high pressure and the upper level divergence increase.  The increased divergence lowers the surface pressure even more.

Here's another view of hurricane intensification (the figure below can be found on pps 42c and 42d in the ClassNotes.




In the figure at left the moderate divergence found at upper levels is stronger than the weak surface convergence.  Divergence is removing more air than is being added by surface convergence.  The surface low pressure will decrease.  The decrease in surface pressure will cause the converging surface winds to blow faster and pick up more heat and moisture.  As the moisture condenses it will warm the atmosphere and lower the rate at which pressure decreases with altitude.  The H pressure at the top center of the hurricane will get higher.

In the middle picture, the surface low pressure is lower, the surface convergence has strengthened to moderate levels.  The upper level divergence has also strengthened.  The upper level divergence is still stronger than the surface convergence so the surface low pressure will decrease even more and the storm will intensify.

In the right figure the surface low pressure has decreased enough that the strong surface convergence now balances the strong upper level divergence.  The storm won't strengthen any more.

Hurricane winds and pressure
Generally speaking the lower the surface pressure at the center of a hurricane the stronger the storm and the faster the surface winds will blow.




This figure tries to show the relationship between surface pressure and surface wind speed.  The world record low sea level pressure reading, 870 mb, was set by Typooon Tip off the SE Asia coast in 1979.  Sustained winds in that storm were 190 MPH.  Three 2005 Atlantic hurricanes: Wilma, Rita, and Katrina had pressures in the 880 mb to 900 mb range and winds ranging from 170 to 190 MPH.


A tropical disturbance is just a localized cluster of thunderstorms that a meteorologist might see on a satellite photograph.  But this would merit observation because of the potential for further development.  Signs of rotation would be evidence of organization and the developing storm would now be called a tropical depression.

In order to be called a tropical storm the storm must strengthen a little more, and winds must increase to 35 knots.  The storm receives a name at this point.  Finally when winds exceed 75 MPH (easier to remember than 65 knots or 74 MPH) the storm becomes a hurricane.  You don't need to remember all these names, just try to remember the information highlighted above.  Symbols for northern and southern hemisphere hurricanes and tropical storms are also shown.

Hurricane eye, eye wall, and spiral rain bands



A crossectional view of a mature hurricane (top) and a picture like you might see on a satellite photograph (bottom). 

Sinking air in the very center of a hurricane produces the clear skies of the eye, a hurricane's most distinctive feature.  The eye is typically a few 10s of miles across, though it may only be a few miles across in the strongest hurricanes.  Generally speaking the smaller the eye, the stronger the storm.

A ring of strong thunderstorms, the eye wall, surrounds the eye.  This is where the hurricane's strongest winds are found. 

Additional concentric rings of thunderstorms are found as you move outward from the center of the hurricane.  These are called rain bands.  These usually aren't visible until you get to the outer edge of the hurricane because they are covered by high altitude layer clouds.

The outer segments of the rings of thunderstorms are called spiral rain bands.


Hurricane Katrina making landfall on Aug. 29, 2005. (source)


The Saffir Simpson Scale is used to rate hurricane intensity (just as the Fujita Scale is used for tornadoes).  The scale runs from 1 to 5.  Remember that a hurricane must have winds of 75 MPH or above to be considered a hurricane.  Category 3,4, and 5 hurricanes are considered "major hurricanes" (in other parts of the world the term super typhoon is used for category 4 or 5 typhoons).


Here's an easy-to-remember version of the scale

Pressure decreases by 20 mb, wind speeds increase by 20 MPH, and the storm surge increases by 5 feet with every change in level on the scale.

Storm surge
The storm surge listed above is a rise in ocean level when a hurricane makes landfall.  This causes the most damage and the greatest number of fatalities near a coast.





The converging surface winds associated with a hurricane sweep surface water in toward the center of a hurricane and cause it to pile up.  The water sinks and, in deeper water, returns to where it came from.  This gets harder and harder to do as the hurricane approaches shore and the ocean gets shallower.    So the piled up water gets deeper and the return flow current gets stronger.

The National Weather Service has developed the SLOSH computer model that tries to predict the height and extant of a hurricane storm surge (SLOSH stands for Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes).  You can see some animations of SLOSH predictions run for hurricanes of historical interest (including the Galveston 1900) hurricane at a National Hurricane Center website (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/#TIDE)

If you watch the simulations above closely you'll notice the highest surge is not where the center of the hurricane makes landfall.  We can use the figure below to understand why this is true.

A hurricane is approaching a north-south oriented coast from the east at 15 MPH.  The winds are spinning in a counterclockwise direction at 100 MPH around the center of the hurricane.  Will the fastest winds be on the north, south, east or west side of the hurricane? 



The fastest winds will be on the north side, because the direction of motion and the direction of the winds are both in the same direction.  They add, the winds are blowing straight toward the coast at 115 MPH.  On the south side the winds are pointing opposite the direction of motion.  Now you subtract the speed of motion from the wind speed.  The winds are 85 MPH and are blowing away from the coast on the south side of the hurricane.  This same idea can be applied to tornadoes.  Tornadoes can move faster, though, and there may a factor of two difference in wind speeds on opposites side of the tornado.

Once a hurricane moves onshore the winds weaken rapidly.  The greatest threat now becomes flooding from the tremendous amounts of rain that a hurricane can produce.  Tornadoes are also a danger.