Global Warming Discussion

What to do?

The global warming issue has been labeled the "Science of Uncertainty"

1. Although we are able to measure a significant rise in the global average temperature in recent years, we are unable to determine how much of the warming is due to the increases in greenhouse gases and how much is part of some natural cycle;
2. We are unable to predict exactly how climate will change in the future with higher levels of greenhouse gases (or lower levels of greenhouse gases if emissions are eliminated);
3. We do not entirely understand the impacts that climate changes will have on humans and other life on the planet.

If nothing else, the human race is in the process of performing a huge experiment on global climate by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is probably greater now than at any time over the last several hundred thousand years. The outcome of this experiment is uncertain. Are we ready and willing to take the risks? So far the answer is yes, because in spite of all the talk about global warming, greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere continue to increase. This is especially relevant for the people of the United States who emit more greenhouse gases per person than any other large nation on Earth. By the way, if you are one of those people who believe that even though adding greenhouse gases is probably not a good thing, but think we should wait to deal with the issue until we are more sure that greenhouse gases are causing us problems, you need to keep in mind that there will likely be no "quick fix". Once released into the atmosphere, greenhouse gases remain for quite some time, and there is a significant delay before the complete climate change, at the higher greenhouse gas concentrations, is fully realized. In accordance with those who believe that we should not take the potential risks associated with climate change here is an interesting comparison between possible climate change caused by emissions of greenhouse gases and possible cancer caused by tobacco use.

In reality recent climate change is influenced by both natural variation and human greenhouse gas emissions. It is very difficult to determine the relative influence from each. Much of the debate revolves around the question ... is recent climate change mostly from natural variability or mostly from greenhouse gas emissions? One one side, there are researchers who believe that recent climate changes are mainly due to natural climate variability, which has happened throughout Earth's history, with much less influence from greenhouse gas emissions. Some point to known geophysical oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), to explain recent and past temperature changes. They may reason that recent climate changes are just part of natural variations in climate, and humans and most other forms of life have survived past changes just fine. Since the changes are mostly natural, there is not much that humans can do about it anyway. One the other side, there are many climate scientists who believe that, even on top of the natural variability of the climate, something out of the ordinary is happening and humans are to blame due to greenhouse gas emissions. They believe that recent climate change is mostly due to greenhouse gas emissions and we must take steps to reduce or eliminate emissions to avoid unnatural and potentially catastrophic future climate change. The next 30 years or so may help us better determine what is most responsible for for modern climate changes. There are quite a few researchers that are predicting a decades-long period of global cooling based on their assertions that we are beginning a period of lower solar activity and/or a cold phase of the PDO. This contrasts strongly with global climate models that predict continued warming due to greenhouse gas forcing.

Yet another group of people do not deny that temperatures are warming and also believe that it may be caused by human activity (although we cannot be sure at this point mainly because climate models are not good enough to answer this question), but they are unconcerned about the possible consequences. In essense they do not believe the doom and gloom future senarios projected by the IPCC reports. This group wonders why we should go through economic and personal hardships required to signficantly reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, since in comparison, those hardships will be much worse than the consequences of any climate changes that we may or may not cause. For example see the Newsweek article written by Havard atmospheric scientiest Richard Lindzen Learning to Live with Global Warming: Why So Gloomy? Unfortunately, I am no longer able to find the original opinion piece using a free link. It has been eliminated. However, there are plenty of links to sources that attack Lindzen's originally published piece. In one of those, I was able to find a link to some of the text from the original piece. The title, "Opinion: Global Warming Fears Overblown" is not the same as the original title. It does not even provide proper reference to the author. Here is a link to A portion of Lindzen's 2007 Newsweek Opinion Piece

Here is a recent Zoom presentation from Dr Lindzen that expands upon his views, titled, " The Imaginary Climate Crisis - How can we Change the Message?"

Based on recent public opinion polls, it appears that many Americans implicitly agree with Dr. Lindzen, i.e., although many believe human activity may be responsible for recent climate changes, taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not considered a high priority, (see Feb 3, 2023 Pew Research Poll of American's top priorities). Internationally, Americans show relaltively low concern about addressing climate change compared with citizens polled in other countries as shown in this Pew Research poll conducted in August 2022. People were asked if they consider global climate change a major threat. Only 54% of US citizens said yes, which was lower than all but one country. Overall, global climate change was considered the biggest threat when all countries are considered, yet US citizens ranked it the least important of the five threats considered.

There are some who take this a step further by claiming that higher levels of CO₂ will result in beneficial climate changes for life on Earth. The basis for this argument is that global plant productivity will continue to increase due to the combination of higher levels of CO₂ and warmer temperatures. The current concentration of CO₂ at over 400 ppm is much lower than it was during past periods, such as the Cambrian Peroid (~550 Million years ago), when it estimated to have been around 6000 ppm. Thus, some say the current global environment is CO₂-starved. Life on Earth flourished during this period of higher CO₂. Ancient plants grew so prolifically that over time CO₂ levels in the atmosphere dropped and much of the carbon accumulated as fossil fuels. These people claim that all we are doing today is returning this carbon back to the atmosphere. Here is an article from NASA, Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds, which indicates significant "greening" of the Earth's surface over the last 35 years based on satillite observations.

Several prominent scientists have expressed their belief that the potential benefits of increased carbon dioxide outweigh any risk. Links to two YouTube videos are available below. The first is an Interview with former theoretical physicist Freeman Dyson titled "Carbon Dioxide is Making The World Greener." The second is an Interview with physicist Dr. William Happer from Princeton University titled "World In Midst of Carbon Drought."

There are many diverse opinions on how to deal with the global warming issue. Each of us needs to make up our own mind. Are you willing to make sacrifices now to reduce the potential (and uncertain) consequences of global warming? Personal sacrifices would be consciously limiting your activities which release greenhouse gases (like electric energy use, driving a car or traveling by airplane). Do you support societal sacrifices and regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Do you feel strongly enough to actively advocate for such regulation? Societal sacrifices would be government regulations that force individuals and companies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Topic Outline for Further Discussion

This outline is used to stimulate discussion in the lecture class. You are not expected to study over and understand all the issues presented below. These are just some additional topics to think about. There are many other debatable topics within the anthropogenic global warming issue than are presented here.

1. Since we are unable to accurately predict future climate changes due to adding greenhouse gases, surprises are possible. There is the real possibility that future climate changes due to anthropogenic greeenhouse gas emissions will be even more severe than the predictions of current climate models.
• Large, regional climate shifts may occur if for instance the Gulf stream ocean circulation shuts down
• Are there strong positive feedbacks that have not fully kicked in yet? For example, large amounts of methane are stored in permafrost regions of the northern hemisphere. If permafrost soils melt, the methane could be released into the atmosphere.
• Is there some threshold in either temperature or greenhouse gas concentrations that once we pass, the climate system will shift abruptly to another state? These potential thresholds are often called "climate tipping points." For example, see Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against .
2. Ocean acidification is sometimes called the "other CO₂ issue." A good portion of the CO₂ emitted into the atmosphere by human activities ends up in the oceans. The absorption of CO₂ by the oceans could in fact be slowing down the potential climate changes related to human emissions of CO₂. As CO₂ is dissolved into the ocean water it alters water chemistry, making it more acidic and lowering its pH. This may affect the life cycles of many marine organisms. This issue is gaining attention, but as with other possible effects of human emissions of greenhouse gases, the outcome is uncertain. Below are links to two articles, the first discusses the possible negative environmental effects as more CO₂ is dissolved into the oceans, while the second claims that global average ocean acidification may not be much of a problem at all, especially when compared with the huge daily swings in pH that have been observed at single locations:
• Ocean acidification, explained by National Geographic
• Scripps blockbuster: Ocean acidification happens all the time — naturally
3. Although Al Gore and and others claim there is a consensus among climate scientists on global warming due to greenhouse gas increases, this is not true at all. This I know from experience. Atmospheric and climate scientists have debates all the time about the effects of increased greenhouse gases and how much we should be concerned about it. The often repeated assertation that 97% of scientists believe that human-caused climate change is an urgent problem is false (see the linked article below, which explains the history of this false statement). People like Al Gore like to say things like "the science on [human-caused] global warming is settled" and what is left to do is determine how to reduce emissions. Be careful about the motives of the people who are spreading this myth of scientific consensus on global warming. They are preying on the fact that many non-scientists don't want to bother tying to understand the science behind complex issues like global warming. By claiming consensus among scientists, it gives the public an excuse not to think about the issue. It is as if Al Gore is saying, "just believe me, this issue is far too complex for you to understand." Scientists need to be able to explain complex environmental issues to the public.
   • See The Myth of the Climate Change '97%', which was published in 2014 in the Wall Street Journal
   • Here is A Link to Article Above that does not require you to subscribe to the WSJ.
4. Try to think about the issue objectively and not emotionally. Just becuase we are perturbing our environment does not guarantee disaster.
• Our actions often have (unintended) negative effects on the environment, but that is not proof that greenhouse gases are causing most of the recent climate changes, nor is it proof that that future disaster is certain. There are many who reason that human burning of fossil fuel is not natural, therefore, the greenhouse emissions must be bad for the environment. There are some who simply feel "guilty" for our extensive use of Earth's resources. There is nothing wrong with these personal beliefs, however, it is not a scientific argument. Consider the following analogy. New pharmaceutical drugs come out all the time. Early testing often shows no harmful side effects. Yet there are many, including your instructor, who are suspicious that there are side effects and decide not to take the drug. This was not based on science, but based on a feeling that putting something into your body can easily have unintended bad consequences. We just need to realize that people often make decisions based more on emotion than the best scientific estimate.
• Many people have a genuine desire to "save the planet" and are emotionally convinced that many human actions are bad. These people are looking for a popular environmental cause to fight for, regardless of the scientific basis.
• Are polar bears really in touble? Many believe that polar bear numbers are decreasing and that the species is in serious decline due to arctic warming and the reduction of sea ice. However, it does not take much investigation to determine that polar bear numbers are in fact increasing and that the decline in summer sea ice may not have a huge impact on polar bear numbers. The blog Polar Bear Science by polar bear expert Dr. Susan Crockford discusses some of the misconceptions linking polar bears with climate change. Here is a You Tube video from Dr. Crockford, Polar Bear Scare Unmasked: The Saga of a Toppled Global Warming Icon. Warning: Some of the images in the video are disturbing for some to watch, even though the point of the video is that the threat to polar bears from climate change is overstated. So why does this misinformation about polar bears continue? It is because many people have emotional ties to cute polar bears and if people believe that greenhouse gas emissions are killing polar bears, they may be more willing to get behind programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The use of misinformation (or scare tactics) is mentioned again within point 5 below.
• Are there really more extreme weather events happening because of global warming? This claim has been rufuted several times earlier in the semester. There has been no statistically significant increase in extreme weather events based on available observations and archived data, yet the possible increase in extreme weather due to human-caused climate change is often presented as a fact. Again, one purpose for continuing to make this claim is to try to get public approval for programs to reduce emissions. If people believe that greenhouse gas emissions are causing more and stronger severe weather events, like the ones shown in news headlines, then it may be easier to convince them to take action to reduce emissions. The use of misinformation (or scare tactics) is also included within point 5 below.
• For many, the issue of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases has become almost a religious fanaticism, based on belief rather than science. In fact unconcerned citizens are often labeled as "global warming skeptics" or "deniers". Some believe that the derogatory term "denier" should be reserved for those who deny obvious facts, like "holocaust deniers." As we have seen there is much uncertainty about possible harmful or catestrophic human-caused climate change.
5. There are people and organizations who will tell you that their main concern is the the environment and negative effects of global warming, but in reality they have hidden agendas.
• Some who have contempt for large corporations and corporate greed believe that many large corporations make their money by exploiting the environment and should be punished.
• Some politicians and government agencies want to enhance their revenue and power through taxes and regulations on greenhouse gas emissions by companies. Some in our federal government are currently promoting a cap and trade policy for greenhouse gas emissions. A basic description of cap and trade (or emissions trading) is given in the Wikipedia entry for Emissions Trading.
• Even companies and large corporations will promote emission controls if they feel that they can profit by exploiting any new regulations.
• Sometimes government policies actually lead to higher emissions and waste, for example, check out this article about how a US tax credit for renewable energy backfired.
• Probably the worst offenders in this grouping are scientists who manipulate data and presentations to make possible anthropogenic global warming look as certain and devastating as possible in order to secure government grants. Because even some scientists are biased, I suggest that you at least consider several diverse positions from different scientists. The reason I call these scientists the "worst" offenders is because the public often places trust in scietists to tell the truth and these individuals can cause the public to distrust scientists in general.
• A controversy called climategate errupted in 2009 after emails from Climate Research Group at the University of East Anglia in England were hacked and publicly released. Some of the emails, which included communications with climate scientists from around the world, talked about refusing to share data with skeptics and attempting to keep opposing views from being published in peer-reviewed literature, which both violate fundamental principles of science. While climategate in no way changes the arguments or evidence for human-caused global warming, it does cause some to question statements made by scientists. If you are interested in climategate, I suggest you do a web search and read several articles on both sides. You can get started with Watts Up with that Climategate index page
• Not all scientists are motivated by money. Some are motivated by their concern for the environment. This can be a moral dilemma for scientists who believe human emissions of greenhouse gases will eventually lead to harmful climate change. Even though they understand the uncertainty, they choose not to transmit that to the public because for them taking action to reduce emissions is more important than being scientifically honest to the public. Here is a very interesting blog discussing this ethical dilemma for some climate scientists. Below is a quote from back in 1989 by Stephen Schneider, a famous (now deceased) lead author of the intial IPCC reports:

  "On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."

• Here is a link to a video showing Dr. Judith Curry's testamony to congress on December 8, 2015 concerning "groupthink" among climate researchers. Dr. Curry's testimony is provided in about 5 minutes (starting at 58:33 on the video).
6. You should realize that humans are significantly altering the global climate in a variety of ways besides the radiative effects of adding greenhouse gases. When we put all of our focus on carbon dioxide emissions in terms of its perturbation to the greenhouse effect, we are neglecting other, and potentially more important, aspects of the impact of human activities on climate. If we are serious about mitigating anthropogenic climate changes, then we need to consider the effects of everything that we do, not just the radiative effects of added greenhouse gases. Examples of other human activities that influence climate changes include landscape changes, aerosol production, and the widespread use of fertilizers. Below are links to two articles, written by Roger Pielke Sr., which discuss how we are largely ignoring some human activities that have damaging impacts on the environment, since all the focus is on greenhouse gas increases and changes in global average temperature.
• A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system published in Physics Today 2008.
• Land's complex role in climate change: To mitigate climate change at local, regional, and global scales, we must begin to think beyond greenhouse gases published in Physics Today 2016.
7. In focussing too much attention on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, we often ignore adaptation strategies that could save millions and reduce our exposure to loss in the future (see Lifting the Taboo on Adaptation).
• For example, quoting from the article above: "Much of the post-Katrina debate focussed on whether or not the event bore the signiture of global warming, despite the fact that scientists have known for decades the inevitability of a katrina-type disaster in New Orleans." So instead of blaming the Katrina disaster on global warming, we should consider actions that could have been taken to limit hurricane damage, such as strengthening the levies surrounding New Orleans.
• Recall the previous information presented about heat waves. We can take actions right now that will reduce and prevent many deaths that happen during heat waves, without arguing about whether or not the heat wave was caused by greenhouse gas emissions. There are those who claim that the only way to prevent ever increasing deaths from heat waves is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and seem to ignore actions that could prevent many heat related deaths.
• Other similar examples are presented under the section "At the Margins" in the article above.
8. Are we willing and able to do what it would take to significantly reduce the possible effects of global warming?
• As part of the Paris Climate Accord, The US pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 26% below what we emitted in 2005 by the year 2025. Even if we do meet this goal, it will not have much impact on global climate change. We emitted a lot of greenhouse gases in the year 2005 and 26% less of a large number is still a large number, i.e., the US would still be emitting a lot of greenhouse gases and would still be contributing to increases in the global concentration of greenhouse gases. If global warming is occurring due to higher levels of greenhouse gases, this action would not stop global warming. At best it might slow it down slightly. This doesn't even consider that emissions from developing countries are expected to increase through the year 2025.
• In 2016 Bjorn Lomborg authored the published paper, Impact of Current Climate Proposals, which looked at the potential impact of the currently proposed plans for emission reductions by the US, China, the EU, and the Rest of the World. One part of the study was was to run a climate model simulation for two cases: (1) Using the most pessimistic future emissions scenario considered by the IPCC (RCP 8.5); and (2) Considering the most optimistic proposals for emission reductions by each of the country groupings by the year 2030 (then holding emissions constant through 2100). Lomborg calculated a difference in projected warming of only 0.17° C by the year 2100. For the RCP8.5 case, the global average temperature in 2100 is projected to be 4.67°C higher than the pre-industrial global average temperature, while implementing the most optimistic emission reduction plans by the year 2030 still lead to a 4.5°C increase in global average temperature using the same model.
• The last sentence of the paper's conclusion is "This clearly indicates that if we want to reduce climate impacts significantly, we will have to find better ways than the ones currently proposed."
• This study does assume that no further reductions in GHG emissions are made after the most optimistic reductions happen by 2030, which is probably not realistic. However, the point is that the current proposed reductions in GHG emissions will have an almost imperceptible impact on future global warming. If our goal is to significantly reduce the future global warming projected by climate models, then we need to find ways to reduce emissions far more than our current plans.
• A previous IPCC report claimed that the world may have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% (from 1990 levels) in order to avoid disastrous effects of global warming ... is this even possible?
• Are the people in the developed world (you and me) ready to give up the freedom of driving cars or not using new technology (like cell phones and computers) becuase they use a lot of energy and end up adding greenhouse gases to the air?
• Is it fair for the developed world to tell the developing world, no you cannot use fossil fuel in the way the we do because of potential global warming?
• Realistically, doing small things, like turning off an unnecessary light or recycling your plastic water bottles, which do reduce waste and are in themselves good choices, will only have a minimal effect on possible global warming assuming that the predictions of climate models are correct.
• Unfortunately, we are no where near being able to replace all of our fossil fuel usage with any currently available alternative energy. It is not simply that we are too lazy to switch from fossil fuels or even that it is too expensive, the point is we are unable to meet our current energy demands (and needs) with currently available alternative energies. Sometimes the push to quickly implement alternative energy technologies leads to other environmental issues. In addition, these measures may not be enough to significantly change the trajectory of global warming in spite of the sometimes high costs of implemetation.
9. Perhaps becuase anthropogenic global warming and its possible effects remain uncertain, we should focus on making changes that make sense even if there were no global warming fears. We need to sensibly plan for the future energy demands of the world as fossil fuels will run out someday. I think that most people agree that conservation, preservation, and the development of sustainable alternative energies are important and should be carried out. However, we should try to avoid making hasty and poorly thought out decisions on energy policy that only marginally influence possible anthropogenic global warming, but have far reaching negative impacts on people, such as the widespread production and use of corn-based ethanol or imposing high "energy taxes" that will be disproportionately paid for by the poor. For example, you may wish to read Protecting the Poor from Climate Change: Which Voices Count for another perspective.