Wednesday, November 20

Today, we will be using page 156, page 159a, page 159b, and page 160a from the Class Notes Package.




Severe thunderstorms, wind shear, mesocyclones, and wall clouds

Next we'll look at some of the conditions that can lead to severe thunderstorm formation and some of the characteristics of these storms.  Severe thunderstorms last longer, grow bigger, and become stronger than ordinary air mass thunderstorms.  They can also produce tornadoes.


Severe storms are more likely to form when there is vertical wind shear (the picture above is on page 156 in the ClassNotes).  Wind shear (Point 1) is changing wind direction and/or wind speed with distance.  In the case shown above, the wind speed is increasing with increasing altitude, this is vertical wind shear.

A thunderstorm that forms in this kind of an environment will move (at perhaps the average of the speeds at the top and bottom of the cloud) (Point 2).  The thunderstorm will move to the right more rapidly than the air at the ground which is where the updraft begins.  Rising air that is situated at the front bottom edge of the thunderstorm will find itself at the back edge of the storm when it reaches the top of the cloud. 

This produces a tilted updraft (Point 3).  The downdraft is situated at the back of the cloud.  The updraft is continually moving to the right and staying away from the downdraft.  The updraft and downdraft coexist and do not "get in each others way."  If you remember in air mass thunderstorms, the downdraft gets in the way of the updraft and leads to dissipation of the storm.

Sometimes the tilted updraft will begin to rotate.  A rotating updraft is called a mesocyclone (Point 4).  Meso refers to medium size (thunderstorm size) and cyclone means winds spinning around low pressure (tornadoes are sometimes called cyclones).  Low pressure in the core of the mesocyclone creates an inward pointing pressure gradient force needed to keep the updraft winds spinning in circular path.

The cloud that extends below the cloud base and surrounds the mesocyclone is called a wall cloud (Point 5).  The largest and strongest tornadoes will generally come from the wall cloud. 

Note (Point 6) that a tilted updraft also provides a way of keeping growing hailstones inside the cloud.  Hailstones get carried up toward the top of the cloud where they begin to fall.  But they then fall back into the strong core of the updraft and get carried back up toward the top of the cloud.

Here is a link to an exceptional time lapse video (http://www.mikeolbinski.com/timelapse/) of a supercell thunderstorm in Texas from Mike Olbinski again.  Find the Supercell near Booker, Tx frame near the bottom of the page.  In time lapse you can see the rotation of the wall cloud.  If you watch closely you'll see another interesting feature: moisture from air in the downdraft that reaches the ground is drawn into the thunderstorm updraft (starting at about 0:38 in the video up until the end of the first segment of video).  As the downdraft air moves upward cloud begins to form. 

It is worth trying to understand why the wall cloud surrounds the mesocyclone and why it extends below the rest of the cloud.





Clouds form when air rises, expands, and cools as shown above at left.  The rising air expands because it is moving into lower pressure surroundings at higher altitude.  Only when the air has risen high enough, moved into low enough pressure, expanded and cooled enough will a cloud form.  Just for the purposes of illustration we'll assume that once air has traveled from the ground to 900 mb pressure higher up it will have expanded and cooled enough for a cloud to form.


Air in the center of the rotating updraft has a little lower pressure than the air surrounding it at the same altitude.  I've assumed that the pressure in the middle of the mesocyclone at cloud base altitude is 890 mb.  In this part of the picture 900 mb pressure is found a little bit closer to the ground.  Thus air that rises into the rotating updraft doesn't have to go as high before it encounters 900 mb pressure and has expanded and cooled enough to form a cloud.


A similar kind of thing happens in the formation of a tornado cloud.

Weather radar and "hook echoes"

Thunderstorms with rotating updrafts and supercell thunderstorms often have a distinctive radar signature called a hook echo.
  This is one of the ways that scientists are now able to better detect and warn of tornadic thunderstorms

We haven't discussed weather radar in this class.  In some ways a radar image of a thunderstorm is like an X-ray photograph of a human body.




An X-ray image of a person doesn't usually show the entire body, often just the bones and skeleton inside.



The radio signals emitted by radar pass through the cloud itself but are reflected by the much larger precipitation particles. The radar keeps track of how long it takes for the emitted signal to travel out to the cloud, be reflected, and return to the radar antenna.  The radar can use this to determine the distance to the storm.  It also knows the direction to the storm and can locate the storm on a map.  The intensity of the reflected signal (the echo) is often color coded.  Red means an intense reflected signal and lots of large precipitation particles.  The edge of the cloud isn't normally seen on the radar signal.  The amount and intensity of the precipitation is sometimes used in Tucson during the summer to issue a severe thunderstorm warning.

A Doppler radar (something we don't usually discuss in class) can detects small shifts in the frequency of the reflected radar signal caused by precipitation moving toward or away from the radar antenna.  This can be used to determine the direction and speed of the wind inside a thunderstorm (and sometimes in a tornado).
Below is an actual radar image with a prominent hook echo.  The hook is evidence of large scale rotation inside a thunderstorm and means the thunderstorm is capable of, and may already be, producing tornadoes.
 



This is the radar image of a thunderstorm that produced a very strong tornado that hit Oklahoma City in May 1999 ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/radscel.htm ).  The hook echo is visible near the lower left hand corner of the picture.  Winds in the tornado may have exceeded 300 MPH.  You can read more about this tornado here.  And here is some storm chase video of the tornado.


Tornadoes

The United States has roughly 1000 tornadoes in an average year, more than any other country in the world.



A year's worth of tornado activity plotted on a world map.  Note the name at bottom left: T.T. Fujita, "Mr. Tornado."  The scale used to rate tornado strength and intensity is named after him.  A comparable, more recent map can be found at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology

This is mostly just a consequence of geography.

 




Without any mountains in the way, cold dry air can move in the spring all the way from Canada to the Gulf Coast.  There it collides with warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to form strong cold fronts and thunderstorms.  There are some other meteorological conditions that come into play that create thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.




This map, created by Alex Matus and from a Wikipedia article on tornado climatology (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_climatology) shows the average frequency of tornado occurrence in the US. 
This map from the National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology) shows the average number of tornadoes by state.

Tornadoes have been observed in every state, but tornadoes are most frequent in the Central Plains, a region referred to as "Tornado Alley" (highlighted in red, orange, and yellow above). 






The figure above shows tornado deaths per million people (from: https://blog.nssl.noaa.gov/nsslnews/2009/03/us-annual-tornado-death-tolls-1875-present/).  You can see a steady decline in fatalities beginning around 1925.  The number of deaths appears to have leveled off at roughly 0.2 deaths per million in the past decade or so (note the y-axis is a logarithmic scale).   This is roughly a factor of 10 less than it was a century ago and is due to much improved methods of detecting and sending out warnings of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. 

The currently population of the US is about 325 million, so 0.2 deaths/million x 325 million is 65 deaths per year.

Here are some data for the past several years (a link to the 2018 data is included below).  You can see that every so often the United States experiences a particularly deadly year.  That was the case in 2011.  An  EF5 tornado struck Joplin, Missouri, on May 22 and killed 158 people (EF refers to the Enhanced Fujita Scale rating).

Tornado statistics for past few years
Year
No. of confirmed tornadoes
No. of deaths
2019 (ongoing)
1121
39
2018
1123
10 (record low)
2017
1418
35
2016
976
18
2015
1178
36
2014
928
47
2013
903
55
2012
939
69
2011
1697
553*
*  second largest death total in US history

You'll find a graphical display of the average annual tornado frequency that extends back to 1995 at https://www.statista.com/statistics/203682/number-of-tornadoes-in-the-us-since-1995/

Tornado characteristics






Here are some basic tornado characteristics (the figure above is also on page 159a)

1.  About 2/3rds (maybe 3/4) of tornadoes are F0 or F1 tornadoes (this is referring to the Fujita Scale, which we'll learn more about later) and have spinning winds of about 100 MPH or less.  Microburst winds can also reach 100 MPH.  Microbursts are much more common in Tucson in the summer than tornadoes and can inflict the same level of damage. 

2.  A very strong inwardly directed pressure gradient force is needed to keep winds spinning in a circular path.  The pressure in the center core of a tornado can be 100 mb less than the pressure in the air outside the tornado.  This is a very large pressure difference in such a short distance.  The PGF is much stronger than the Coriolis Force (CF) and the CF can be neglected.  The same pressure drop can be found in strong hurricanes but it takes place over a much larger distance.  The PGF isn't as strong and the CF does play a role.

3.  Because the Coriolis force doesn't play a role, tornadoes can spin clockwise or counterclockwise, though counterclockwise rotation is more common.  This might be because larger scale motions in the cloud (where the CF is important, might determine the direction of spin in a tornado).

4, 5, 6.  Tornadoes usually last only a few minutes, leave a path on the ground that is a few miles long, and move at a few 10s of MPH.  There are exceptions, we'll look at one shortly.

7, 8.  Most tornadoes move from the SW toward the NE.  This is because tornado-producing thunderstorms are often found just ahead of a cold front where winds often blow from the SW.   Most tornadoes have diameters of 10s to a few 100s of yards but tornadoes with diameters over a mile have been observed.  Tornado diameter can also be much larger near the base of the thunderstorm than it is near the ground.

9, 10.  Overall tornadoes are most frequent in the Spring.  The strongest tornadoes also occur at that time of year.  You don't need to remember the specific months.  Tornadoes are most common in the late afternoon when the atmosphere is most unstable.


The 1925 Tri State Tornado


This figure traces out the path of the 1925 "Tri-State Tornado" .  The tornado path (note the SW to NE orientation) was 219 miles long, the tornado lasted about 3.5 hours and killed 695 people.  The tornado was traveling over 60 MPH over much of its path. It is still today the deadliest single tornado ever in the United States (you'll find a compilation of tornado records here).  The Joplin Missouri tornado (May 22, 2011) killed 158 people making it the deadliest since 1947 and the 7th deadliest tornado in US history.

Tornado outbreaks



Tornadoes often occur in "outbreaks."  The paths of 148 tornadoes during the April 3-4, 1974 "Jumbo Tornado Outbreak" are shown above.  Note the first tornadoes were located in the upper left corner of the map and all of the tornado paths are oriented from SW to NE.

The April 25-28, 2011 outbreak is now apparently the largest tornado outbreak in US history (358 tornadoes, 346 people killed).  You'll find a plot of the tornado paths from the Washington Post here.


Here is some information about a November 2015 High Plains tornado outbreak.  November tornado outbreaks are fairly unusual.


As we learn more about tornadoes I'm hoping you'll look at tornado videos with a more critical eye than you would have otherwise.  So we took a moment, at this point,  to have a look at some tornadoes caught on video.  If you click on the links below you'll see the same or a similar video that I found online.  The videos shown in class were from a tape called "Tornado Video Classics".

The numbers in the left column identified the tornado on the tape.  The next column shows the Fujita Scale rating (the scale runs from F0 (weakest) to F5 (strongest).  The locations and date are shown next.  The last column has comments and things to look for when watching the video segment.



Video
ID
Fujita
Scale
rating
Location
Date
Comments
54a
F3
Grand Isle NE
Mar. 13, 1990
tornado cloud is pretty thick and vertical
61f
F3
McConnell AFB KS
Apr. 26, 1991
this is about as close to a tornado as you're ever likely to get.  Try to judge the diameter of the tornado cloud.  What direction are the tornado winds spinning?
52
F5
Hesston KS

Mar. 13, 1990
Watch closely, you may see a tree or two uprooted by the tornado winds
51
F3
North Platte
NE

Jun. 25, 1989
Trees uprooted and buildings lifted by the tornado winds.  The online video is longer than the one shown in class and has some good closeup video.  See especially the last couple of minutes of the video
65
F1
Brainard MN
Jul. 5, 1991
It's a good thing this was only an F1 tornado
57
F2
Darlington IN
Jun. 1, 1990
Tornado cloud without much dust
62b
F2
Kansas Turnpike
Apr. 26, 1991
It's sometimes hard to run away from a tornado.  Watch closely you'll see a van blown off the road and rolled by the tornado.  The driver of the van was killed!
47
F2
Minneapolis, MN
Jul. 18, 1986
Tornado cloud appears and disappears.  The online video compares features seen in this tornado with one created in a laboratory.

A highway underpass is actually a very dangerous place to take shelter from a tornado, here is a little more information from the Ohio Committee for Severe Weather Awareness.



Tornado life cycle
Hopefully the next time you see a tornado either in person or on video you'll be able to say whether it is early or late in its life cycle and whether it appears to be a stronger or weaker than average tornado.  The following figure is on page 159b in the ClassNotes.





Tornadoes begin in and descend from a thunderstorm.  You would usually see a funnel cloud dropping from the base of the thunderstorm.  Spinning winds will probably be present between the cloud and ground before the tornado cloud becomes visible.  The spinning winds can stir up dust at ground level.  The spinning winds might also be strong enough at this point to produce some minor damage. 

In Stage 2, moist air moves horizontally toward the low pressure in the core of the tornado.  This sideways moving air will expand and cool just as rising air does (see figure below).  Once the air cools enough (to the dew point temperature) a cloud will form. 

Tornadoes can go from Stage 2 to Stage 3 (this is what the strongest tornadoes do) or directly from stage 2 to stage 4 or 5.  Note a strong tornado is usually vertical and thick as shown in Stage 3.  "Wedge tornadoes" actually appear wider than they are tall.

Here is video of the Laverne Oklahoma tornado that was shown in class and that shows the initial dust swirl stage up to the mature stage very well. 

The thunderstorm and the top of the tornado will move faster than the surface winds and the bottom of the tornado.  This will tilt and stretch the tornado.  The rope like appearance in Stage 5 is usually a sign of a weakening (though still a dangerous) tornado.




A tornado cloud forms is mostly the same way that ordinary clouds do.  In an ordinary cloud (left figure above) rising air moves into lower pressure surroundings and expands.  Expansion cools the air.  If the air expands and cools enough (to the dew point) a cloud forms.  In a tornado air moves horizontally into lower pressure at the core of the tornado.  The air expands and cools just like rising air does.  If the air cools enough a cloud appears.

Tornado intensity and the Fujita Scale

It is very hard to actually measure the speed of the rotating winds in a tornado.  Researchers usually survey the damage caused by the tornado and assign a Fujita Scale rating.  The original scale, introduced in 1971 by Tetsuya (Ted) Fujita.  A simplified, easy to remember version is shown below.  A very basic and grossly oversimplified idea of the damage that each level can produce is included.  This is simple enough that I can remember it and can use it to estimate tornado intensity when I see damage on the television news (without having to turn on my computer and look up the Fujita scale online).



The fact that the interior walls in a home as the last to go in a tornado means this is probably the best location to seek shelter from a tornado if a better location (such as an underground storm cellar) is not available. 

At some point it became apparent that the Fujita (F) Scale was probably overestimating the wind speeds in tornadoes.  The original scale has been replaced by the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. 

Here are simplified, easy to remember, versions of both scales.




Here is a comparison of the actual scales



There's also a much more detailed set of guidelines for determining the EF scale rating from a survey of tornado.  Different objects and structures react differently when subjected to tornado (or microburst) strength winds.

The EF scale has 28 "damage indicators" that can be examined to determine tornado intensity.  You can think of these as being different types of structures or objects that could be damaged by lightning.
Examples include:


Damage Indicator
Description
2
1 or 2 family residential home
3
Mobile home (single wide)
10
Strip mall
13
Automobile showroom
22
Service station canopy
26
Free standing light pole
27
Tree (softwood)

Then for each indicator is a standardized list of "degrees of damage"
that an investigator can look at to estimate the intensity of the tornado.  For a 1 or 2 family home for example


degree of damage
description
approximate
wind speed (MPH)
1
visible damage
65
2
loss of roof covering material
80
3
broken glass in doors & windows
95
4
lifting of roof deck, loss of more than 20% of roof material, collapse of chimney, garage doors collapse inward, destruction of porch roof or carport
100
5
house slides off foundation
120
6
large sections of roof removed, most walls still standing
120
7
exterior walls collapse (top story)
130
8
most interior walls collapse (top story)
150
9
most walls in bottom floor collapse except small interior rooms
150
10
total destruction of entire building
170


You'll find the entire set of damage indicators and lists of degrees of damage here.

Here's some recent video of damage being caused by a tornado as it happened (caught on surveillance video).    It shows a house roof being lifted intact off a house.  If you listen to the news commentators, there was someone in a pickup truck in the street that survived the tornado.  The tornado struck West Liberty, Kentucky, on March 2, 2012.

Here are photographs of some actual tornado damage and the EF Scale rating that was assigned to each

EF2 Damage
roof is gone, but all walls still standing
EF4 Damage
only the strong reinforced concrete basement walls (part of the wall was below ground) are left standing.  It doesn't look like there would have been anywhere in this building that would have provided protection from a tornado this strong.
EF5 Damage
complete destruction of the structure




At this point we watched the last of the tornado video tapes.  It showed a tornado that occurred in Pampa, Texas.  Here is a pretty similar video that I found online.  It's missing the commentary that was on the video shown in class.   Near the end of the segment, video photography showed several vehicles (pick up trucks and a van) that had been lifted 100 feet or so off the ground and were being thrown around at 80 or 90 MPH by the tornado winds (the large dark objects seen between about 5:40 and 6:10 on the video).  Winds speeds of about 250 MPH were estimated from the video photography (though the wind speeds were measured above the ground and might not have extended all the way to the ground).

Here's probably the best photo comparison of the different levels of tornado damage that I've been able to find. I don't think I can embed the images in the lecture notes without worrying about a copyright violation.

Multiple vortex tornadoes

And finally, something that was initially something of a puzzle to tornado researchers.










One of the better examples that I've seen of very different levels of damage in close proximity.  This is damage from an EF4 tornado that hit Northwood ND on Aug. 26, 2007.  (National Weather Service photo, source click on the Track Segments and Photos link)

Several levels of damage (EF1 to about EF3) are visible in the photograph above.   Here's another example with level F0 through F5 damage all found in a few block area.

It was puzzling initially how some homes could be nearly destroyed while a home nearby or in between was left with only light damage.  One possible explanation is shown below.








Sketch of multiple vortices in a large tornado and the damage pattern they could leave on the ground
An actual aerial survey of tornado damage.  This was an EF 4 tornado that hit Washington Illinois on Nov. 17, 2013 (here is YouTube video of the tornado and the damage left behind).  Photo by Zbigniew Bzdak for the Chicago Tribune (source)
 

Some big strong tornadoes may have smaller more intense "suction vortices" that spin around the center of the tornado (they would be hard to see because of all the dust in the tornado cloud.  You can see what appear to be multiple vortices in the first minute or so of the Hesston KS tornado video shown in Tuesday's class.   Tornado researchers have actually seen the damage pattern shown above scratched into the ground by the multiple vortices in a strong tornado.




The sketch above shows a tornado located SW of a neighborhood.  As the tornado sweeps through the neighborhood, the suction vortex will rotate around the core of the tornado.






The homes marked in red would be damaged severely.  The others would receive less damage.  Just one suction vortex was used here, there are usually several.  But the tornado diameter is also probably larger than shown here.

This ends our coverage of tornadoes.