Climate Change and Implications
Climate has changed in the past and will continue to change in the future. Climate change
is a part of Earth's history. The issue is whether or not humans are significantly
altering the natural progression of climate change, and if so, will these changes be
detrimental to life on Earth, including human life. On this page we will examine the
recent observed changes in temperture and climate as well as some of the impacts of those
changes. We will then briefly discuss the IPCC 2007 report's estimation of what caused the
recent observed changes. Finally, we will take a look at what could happen in the future
if current climate trends continue.
Climate has changed during the past century. Below is a list
of some of the changes that have occurred based on information
contained in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Note that these changes are allegedly based largely on observations and to a lesser extent models,
so we can place more confidence that these are correct in comparison to predictions
of future climate change. However, some of the recent climate changes described in
the latest IPCC Report are questioned by climate researchers.
Please keep in mind that observed changes do not provide strong evidence for why
the changes have happened. Arctic sea ice has decreased in coverage since 1980.
We are quite certain of that. However, that observation does not prove that the reason
for the decrease in Arctic sea ice is human emissions of greenhouse gases. A recurring message
is that correlation does not prove cause and effect. For example, since 1980 we know that greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increases and we also know that arctic sea ice has
decreased, however the fact that these two events are correlated with each other cannot be
used as proof that one caused the other.
- Global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.75°C (1.4°F) since 1850
- 15 of the previous 16 years (1995-2010) rank among the 16 warmest years of the
instrumental temperature record (since 1850).Instructor's note: Few people argue that
global average surface temperature has not risen since 1850. There are questions about how
much it has warmed. Uncertainty comes about because adjustments need to be made to measured
thermometer records for things like changes in instrumentation, changes in the location of
the thermometer with time, changes in population density near the thermometers, etc. Different
reasearch groups use different adjustment methods. One also has to consider some of the
issues recently brought to light in the climategate scandal, which questions the scientific
integrity of some of those responsible for publishing trends in global temperatures. If you
are interested in climategate,
I suggest you do a web search and read several articles on both sides.
- Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean
has increased to depths of at least 3000 m.Instructor's note: This statement has
been widely questioned. Since 2003, we have direct measurements of ocean temperatures
down to 700 meters using the
Argo network of 3441 Ocean Buoys. This data shows a general cooling of ocean temperatures
over the time period of its operation.
- Widespread changes in extreme temperture have been observed over the last 50 years.
Cold days, cold nights, and frost have become less frequent, while hot days,
hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent (see Table SPM-2, IPCC 2007).
Instructors note: I have some question about the ability to prove or disprove these
conclusions given the limited spatial and temporal coverage of data as well as
our limited understanding of the natural variation of these events.
- Global sea level has risen 0.12-0.22 meters (4.7-9.0 inches) since 1900.
- Widespread decreases in glaciers and icecaps (not including Greenland and Antarctica)
have contributed to sea level rise
- The remaining sea level rise due to thermal expansion of oceans.
- Global precipitation patterns have changed
- General increase over eastern parts of North and South America and nothern
Europe and Asia
- Slight decrease in many subtropical regions (20-35)°Latitude
- Increase in the frequency of heavy rain events over many land areas
- More intense and longer droughts now more likely in tropics and subtropics. Instructor's note:
I again question that we have enough data over a long enough period of time to be
able to prove or disprove these claims.
- Significant decrease in arctic sea ice, particularly in the spring and summer seasons
- Northern hemisphere snow cover has decreased by about 10%. Instructor's note: While Northern
Hemisphere snow cover was relatively low in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s, it has
certainly not been low for the 2001 - 2010 period (
article)
- No conclusive change in severe weather events (such as tornadoes and hurricanes).
Some reasearch groups are claiming that hurricanes are becoming more
intense, while other groups dispute this claim.
- Limited observational evidence shows that some biological systems have
been affected by recent climate changes.
- Lengthening of middle and high latitude growing seasons
- Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges
- Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds.
Attributing Observed Climate Changes to Human Activities
The most recent IPCC report (2007) is now more forceful in its statement concerning the
anthropogenic influence on observed climate changes: "Most of the observed increase in
globally averaged tempertures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations." This is different from
the previous statement "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely
to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations." The new assessment is said to
consider longer and improved records and observations of climate change, as well as
improvements in climate model simulations. Instructor's note: I wonder if they are
putting too much faith in the ability of climate models.
Beside the International IPCC report, there are reports by US government agencies that
claim there are climate change impacts that are already easily observable (e.g., see this
EPA page on climate change indicators).
In many of these reports, the reader is lead to believe, either explicitly or implicitly, that the
climate changes mentioned are largely the result of global warming caused by human additions of
greenhouse gases. First, it can be quite difficult to prove that climate has changed significantly
given our incomplete knowledge of past climates and our imcomplete understanding of how the climate
system operates. Then on top of that we would need to prove that the climate changes were significantly
influenced by higher levels of greenhouse gases. Most of the climate changes discussed in the EPA
reports would be considered negative or bad effects of climate changes and end up being discussed
in context of endangered species, forest resources, water availability, disaster planning, and the like.
Often these possible bad effects of climate change are given as reasons to guide policy on
greenhouse gas emissions in spite of the lack of scientific proof connecting them with increases
in greenhouse gases. A skeptical view on some of the recent climate change indicators mentioned
by the US EPA and attributing these changes to greenhouse gases is provied in
Climate Change Impacts In The USA are Already (Not) Happening.
Climate is expected to continue to change in the future. The following list
is based on climate model projected changes due to addition of greenhouse gases.
Because this list is based on climate model projections, these changes are by no means
certain to happen.
- Projected temperature increases of
(1.1-6.4°F) by 2010.
- Projected sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (7 - 23 inches) by 2100
- Likely increase in precipitation intensity. More heavy rain events
and more severe droughts.
- Continued reduction in areal coverage of snow, glaciers, and sea ice.
- Continued changes in biological systems
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
- Human health, natural ecological systems, and
socioeconomic systems are all sensitive to both the magnitude
and the rate of climate change
- Many physical and ecological systems will be
simultaneously affected
- The ability of natural ecological systems to migrate
appears to be much slower than the predicted rate of climate
change
- Climate change can add to existing environmental
stresses