Research Interests: Predictability, weather analysis and forecasting

Dr. Mullen is currently studying the utility of ensemble forecasts, the running of several numerical weather prediction forecasts starting from slightly different initial states and/or different model formulations. The results of this work have been shown to improve the prediction of atmospheric phenomena that traditionally have been difficult to forecast accurately such as precipitation amount and type. 

Recent Publications:

Bright, D. A. and S. L. Mullen, 2002: Short-term ensemble forecasts of precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1080-100.

Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2002: The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic precipitation forecasts by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.  Wea. Forecasting, 17, 173-191.

Bright, D. A. and S. L. Mullen, 2002: The sensitivity of the numerical simulation of the Southwest monsoon boundary layer to the choice of PBL turbulence parameterization in MM5. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 99-114.

Wandishin, M. S., S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks, 2001: Evaluation of a short-range, multi-model ensemble system.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 729-747.

Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2001: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the contiguous United States by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-663.

Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, D. P. Baumhefner, S. L. Mullen, and Z. Toth, 2000: Ensemble forecasting in the short to medium range: Report from a workshop.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2653-2664.